05 Apr 2022, 10:49
At the government session chaired by the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alikhan Smailov, an updated forecast for the socio-economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2022-2026 and the republican budget for 2022-2024 was approved. Ministers of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Alibek Kuantyrov, Minister of Finance Yerulan Zhamaubayev presented their reports.
The Minister of National Economy Alibek Kuantyrov submitted for consideration a refinement of the forecast of macroeconomic indicators and budget parameters for 2022. The forecast of macro indicators has been revised taking into account the external economic situation, trends in the oil market, as well as on the basis of expectations for the development of the world economy. Thus, since the beginning of the year, there has been a positive trend in the growth of the country's economy. The GDP growth rate amounted to 3.5% in January-February of this year.
According to Kuantyrov, according to international financial organizations, this year global GDP growth prospects are expected to deteriorate. S&P Global has lowered its 2022 growth forecast for the global economy from 4.2% to 3.6%.
“The average oil price since the beginning of the year was $98 per barrel. At the same time, IFO forecasts for 2022 for oil prices range from $74 to $105 per barrel. In this regard, when clarifying macro indicators, the average annual price of oil is set at $90 per barrel,” the Minister of National Economy informed.
Based on the foregoing, the forecast for the growth of the country's economy has been reduced from 3.9% to 2.1%. At the same time, nominal GDP is estimated at 91.5 trillion tenge, which is 4.5 trillion tenge higher than the approved forecast.
The forecast indicators in the manufacturing industry have been reduced from 3.5% to 2.9% due to the limitation of production in the metallurgy due to increased protectionism in the world and rising tariffs.
In construction, growth will remain at the previously approved level of 3.8%.
In information and communication, the forecast was lowered from 8.3% to 5% as a result of a decrease in demand for communication services.
“According to the forecast of the National Bank, exports will increase to $72.2 billion. Imports will amount to $40.2 billion. Inflation is determined in the corridor of 8-10%,” the minister of national economy said.
It should be noted that on the basis of the adjusted macroeconomic forecast, the forecast for budget revenues has been updated. Republican budget revenues in 2022 are estimated at 10,162 billion tenge, which is 955 billion tenge higher than the approved plan.
The main increase in revenues is expected from the ETP for oil due to an increase in the duty rate against the background of an increase in the forecast price for oil, changes in the exchange rate of the tenge against the US dollar and corporate income tax due to an increase in macroeconomic indicators.
In order to implement the tasks set by the President for the Government and ensure the balance of the republican budget, it is proposed to adjust the amount of the guaranteed transfer from the National Fund approved for 2022, increasing it to 4,030 billion tenge or 1,630 billion tenge.
Minister of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan Yerulan Zhamaubayev presented a draft law on clarification of the republican budget for 2022.
As part of the clarification, the instructions of the Head of State, the activities of policy documents, the costs associated with changes in macroeconomic indicators, as well as additional funds for the implementation of previously accepted urgent obligations were taken into account.
In these areas, budget expenditures were increased by 2.7 trillion tenge.
The sources of increase in budget expenditures are:
An additional 1.8 trillion tenge will be allocated for the implementation of the instructions of the President.
Zhamaubayev dwelled on the priority areas of this block.
First. Implementation of measures to increase the income of the population with a total expenditure of 197 billion tenge.
Within the framework of these funds, support for young people, the provision of microcredits for starting their own business, subsidizing part of the rent for rented housing and other important measures aimed at increasing the real incomes of the population will be provided.
Second. Activities under the Food Security Plan — 238 billion tenge.
“Additional funds will be used to subsidize the agro-industrial complex, increase the volume of preferential lending for spring field and harvesting work and solve other issues in agriculture,” the Minister of Finance said.
Third. Development of regions with additional costs totaling 476 billion tenge.
The main part of these expenses in the amount of 271 billion tenge or 57% is directed to the development of the western and southern regions.
“In general, taking into account the clarification, more than 5.5 trillion tenge or 29.3% of total expenditures will be allocated to the regions from the republican budget. Also, within the framework of additional funds, expenses are provided for the indexation of social payments in connection with a change in the inflation corridor. This is more than 110 billion tenge,” said Zhamaubayev.
As a result, the parameters of the republican budget were formed as follows:
Budget revenues will amount to 15.8 trillion tenge or 17.3% of GDP.
Expenses are projected at the level of 18.8 trillion tenge or 20.5% of GDP.
The budget deficit was kept at the previously approved level.
“All the planned measures should give impetus to the development of the economy and regions, ensure the growth of incomes of the population and improve the quality of life of citizens,” the Minister of Finance concluded.